5 tech predictions for 2008
As we slowly bid adieu to 2007, I'm looking forward to 2008 and what will welcome us in the new year. And while none of us actually know what to expect, the future looks bright for this industry.
Think about it: who would have thought that Facebook would become such a powerhouse, the iPhone would take the world by storm and Dell would have dropped so significantly in just one year?
But in the fast-paced world of technology, we've learned that just about anything can happen and the leaders of today may not necessarily be the leaders of tomorrow. After all, is there any guarantee that Microsoft will still hold on to its dominating position or the iPod will still be the top dog in the PMP business? Not a chance.
But as I look forward to 2008, I truly believe there are some things we can accurately predict for next year. Whether it's the diminished popularity of the Wii or Google's meteoric rise in the cell phone business, the future looks bright and we should get ready to enjoy the ride.
2008 Prediction 1: The Wii falls flat on its face
Time to fire up the Link suits and the plumber outfits, someone said the Wii is going to fall flat on its face in 2008.
Look, I'll be the first to say that some games (Wii Sports and Mario Party 8) are fun to play with a group of people and Super Mario Galaxy is a somewhat fun single player experience, but where are the rest of the games? Sure, the Wii is popular today, but it looks much more like the fabled Furby of 1998 than a gaming platform that will have longevity.
As I've said here before, video game sales dictate the winners and losers in this industry and as far as I can tell, the Wii is lacking on this front. If you were to take an objective look at the upcoming release calendar for all three consoles, chances are you won't say the Wii has the strongest lineup. Sure, it has Super Smash Bros. Brawl, but where are the games that people can play alone on multiple occasions?
Say what you will, but the Wii's demand will fade and people will be left wondering where all the exciting games are. Suffice it to say, this thing will forever be known as the fad of 2007.
Prediction 2: The death of DRM
For a while, I never thought I would be able to say this, but it looks like DRM may finally die in 2008. Sound too good to be true? Think again: now that Warner has agreed to head on over to Amazon's DRM-free service, only Sony BMG is left wearing the dunce cap. And once that giant falls, the entire music industry will have finally fallen with it.
Now, DRM goes far beyond music and the Digital Millennium Copyright Act makes sure of that, but now that one of its biggest proponents -- the music industry -- has finally given in to a DRM-free service, how long will it take before other industries follow suit?
Sadly, some companies don't realize that DRM is not good business. Worse, none of these companies realize that circumventing DRM has become about as easy as beating up on Vista. In 2008, companies will realize that DRM only hurts the bottom line and it would behoove them to do away with it and hope for the best. Luckily for them, this strategy will work.
Prediction 3: Google takes the cell phone industry by storm
When Google enters its bid at the 700MHz spectrum auction, the future of the cell phone industry will never be the same. Once it wins, the company will initiate an effort to install the infrastructure necessary to create a nationwide Wi-Fi service. During this construction phase, Google will release Android to the world and whether you believe in it or not, it'll place an indelible mark on the entire business.
Google's Android platform will single-handedly propel the cell phone industry forward and give the iPhone a run for its money. After all, if anyone can create a platform that could rival the immense success of the iPhone, wouldn't it be Google?
But alas, the future of the cell phone industry revolves around a partnership with Google and Apple that will probably be formed in 2008, but announced years later. Android won't necessarily act as the competitor to the iPhone, but if both companies have their way, they will lead this industry going into 2009.
And if you ask me, that will probably happen.
Prediction 4: The Rise of IPTV
Sure, this may be a bit of a cop-out given the success of IPTV networks such as Revision3 and ChannelFlip, but if nothing else, we've found that this new form of entertainment is finally coaxing advertisers on to the service, which means success.
Let's face it, when podcasting and IPTV networks first started, no one outside of this business actually believed they would go anywhere. In fact, if you look at most shows, there was very little advertising money to go around and most got out of it because they were losing money. But by creating worthwhile programming, major companies finally took notice and the money started flowing in. And as the money started flowing in, these shows became far more popular. Knowing all this, why would we think that 2008 won't usher in even more advertisers and even better programming?
We're on the precipice of something great with podcasting and IPTV.
Prediction 5: Apple gains significant OS market share
Whether you're an Apple fanboy or just another Microsoft apologist, the writing is on the wall -- 2008 will be the year of the Mac.
Don't believe me? Consider this: Leopard is the fastest growing Apple OS in recent memory, Macs are flying off shelves at an unprecedented rate and Apple's stock price continues to soar as everyone from the business-savvy executive to the artsy loner finds a reason to buy a Mac.
Compare that to the slow adoption rates of Vista and the general feeling that Windows is, well, outdated and derivative, and a perfect storm may be developing in the industry.
Say what you will, but Apple may take a significant chunk of this market before you know it.
So there you have it, my predictions for 2008. Sound unbelievable? Sound spot on? Let's look back a year from now to see what really happens.
Face it but Wii has a much larger appeal than the PS3 and 360, and that is why its games sell great, Mario Party, shunned by the "hardcore" has been tearing up the charts on the Wii and DS over 3 million on the Wii and around 2 million on the DS, why, because it appeals to a much larger group than just the hardcore, same with Mario and Sonic which sold around half a million WW last week.
Sure Wii may not have a FF or a GTA, but it doesn't need those, those only sell to a select group, over and over, they never widen the market, Wii doesn't need to fight over that small group, they'll get Wii anyways for SSBB and Zelda and such, Nintendo is going after the nongamers, the lapsed gamers, those who care nothing for GTA, your prediction will be the only thing that falls flat on its face in 2008
Reason: Appeals to a larger group than either 360 or PS3; People who don't go through games in a week, people who don't want to spend a ton of money on game systems/games, people who want multi-player/family/party games, all for which the Wii is perfect. I have a Wii, and though I'd love the great graphics/wide variety that comes with the 360 and will come with the PS3, I don't have the money to invest in them, nor the time to make that investment very worthwhile. A 'casual' gamer am I, and a large portion of the market is too.
Other systems have a better/wider variety of games, but this won't make the Wii fall. Easy way to tell: If stores start having a stock of Wii's in for more than a day or two before selling them out.
2) DRM will die
I certainly hope so. Unfortunately some are more than stubborn enough to keep their deathgrip on control despite logical business models. I'll bet that the outcomes of the RIAA's ongoing war of lawsuits against consumers will have a large impact on how DRM fares.
3) Google will change the cell phone industry
The rules set up for the 700mhz spectrum (courtesy of Google) alone will alter the cell phone field drastically. And Google certainly has the financial weight to throw around to get what it wants done. I just hope they do don't to actually turn themselves into a cell phone company. That's an entirely different business that Google might not be ready for yet.
4) IPTV Up: Definitely. We see how well music over the internet has worked, this should go along the same route. The current Writer's Guild strike might affect this, though, considering that the strike is about how writers are paid (more accurately, not paid) for most current online distributed TV.
5) Apple shares up
Not hard to believe at all. As far as personal use goes, Macs have been growing for a while now, and show no sign of slowing. The bigger issue will be whether or not Apple can start grabbing a portion of the business market; IE whole corporations turning to macs. Business are usually very slow to change computer systems. 'This is how we've always done it, and it works' is the general mentality, and to get a company to decide to switch from what's comfortable and well known to something new and different will be a difficult task.
The prediction is true but timing is off. I think we are on the verge of a new business model for phone companies and phone and internet will become one in the minds of most people. I also believe that Google will become the biggest player in this industry.
Where I disagree is in the timing. By year end of 2008, Google will only have its Android platform out on devices for a few months. I think this prediction will become true, but it is more of a 2009 prediction.
www.shooklabs.com
2. Apple is offering Fox movies on iTunes, DRM'd. Just announced today, read the news much?
3. Google phone? 700mhz doesn't open up until 2009, you are a year ahead of yourself before Google becomes a real wireless player. The wireless carriers jumping over themselves as being "open" is the mobile telephony zeitgeist.
4. IPtv, you do read the news, but this has been going on for a few years and is growing ({NBC}{MLB, NHL, NFL}{BBC} need I say more?)
5. Anything but windows will make strong gains in market shares.
Thank you for demonstrating that you are in touch with the past.
I do agree that DRM is seeing it's mortality. With more and more artists going to DRM-Free tracks on iTunes, Pay-what-you-want gimmicks, and the like, 2008 is the year for Recording Industry reform.
Although I wouldn't be against investing in IPTV, I don't think it will catch on yet in 2008. The world needs another year or so for the less tech-savvy population to look elsewhere for entertainment than their standard cable.
I, also, have been expecting to see Mac elbowing it's way into the PC market. It's pretty safe to say that with Vista bleeding out (and not fast enough) the *nix and Mac users will both increase, but Mac will probably be ahead of the game.
I've no idea quite how many exams you need to fail to be an analyst because all it seems to involve is quessing and plucking random numbrs from the air.