Your holiday gaming outlook
Halo 3
(Credit: CNET)Now that NPD has released September 2007 figures, it strikes me as quite interesting that so many people were taken aback by the Xbox 360's jump to first place in hardware sales. In fact, if you remember an article I wrote back in September, it would have told you everything you needed to know about hardware sales for September.
But instead, there are a host of journalists and pundits making such a big deal out of the Xbox 360's rise, as if it wasn't expected. As I've said here hundreds of times before: videogames sell consoles, not the other way around.
So, with that in mind, I thought it would be nice to take a look at what is coming soon to a console near you and discuss what I think will happen by the time January rolls around. And while I still believe the Wii is a fad and Sony has some work to do, my conclusions may surprise you.
Microsoft Xbox 360
Xbox 360
(Credit: CNET)Generally speaking, it's Microsoft that has the most to worry about this holiday season. I believe the Xbox 360 will take the day when this whole console battle is over, but all in all, it looks like the next few months will be tough.
A quick glimpse at the Gamestop release calendar will tell you everything you need to know for this holiday season. In a word, the games lineup is mediocre -- at best. Sure, games like Call of Duty 4, Assassin's Creed, and Mass Effect will be hitting shelves, but only the latter will be exclusive to the Xbox 360. And to be quite honest, it's the exclusive titles that will shape this holiday season.
Microsoft has already done what it had to do -- get Halo 3 out the door and enjoy unprecedented hardware and software revenue. In fact, the release of Halo 3 solidified the company as a major player in this business for years to come. But the main problem with its strategy of releasing the game so early is the lack of true hardware-sellers. Sure, Mass Effect looks neat, but is it on par with a game like Halo, which is the main reason the majority of people bought an Xbox 360 in September? I doubt it.
Overall Xbox 360 outlook for the holiday season: mediocre.
Nintendo Wii
Nintendo Wii
(Credit: CNET)I expect the Wii to have a huge holiday season once again. With Super Mario Galaxy around the corner, some are touting it as the biggest jump in the franchise since Super Mario 64.
All in all, I think it's safe to say that first-party franchises have always dominated Nintendo consoles, and the Wii is no different. And regardless of what you think about this, it works for Nintendo.
With an expected November 12th release date, Super Mario Galaxy couldn't come at a better time for Nintendo. Not only will it make every Nintendo fan jump for joy, it'll force parents to make a decision -- should I buy it for my kids now or use it as a gift for the holidays? I guarantee the majority of people will choose the latter.
Historically speaking, Mario games have always helped sell Nintendo consoles. And with the Wii hype dying down, Super Mario Galaxy is exactly what the company needs to stimulate sales and add some fuel to the dwindling fire of hype.
Overall Nintendo Wii outlook for the holiday season: strong
Sony Playstation 3
Sony Playstion 3
(Credit: CNET)With Sony's decision to drop the price of the Playstation 3 to a far more affordable level, I believe the company will enjoy a significant surge in sales this holiday season. And while I have some issues with the upcoming catalog of games (it's a bit weak), it's strong enough to justify people spending their cash on the device.
As I mentioned above, the Wii will have a strong holiday season. Along those lines, the Wii will probably be sold out for much of the season and people will be standing in line once again. And for all of those who weren't able to pick up a Wii, the Playstation 3 will be the next logical choice.
Think about it: you're standing in line for a Wii and you're told it's sold out. Knowing all too well that your kids want a new video game console, the affordable Playstation 3 is sitting there for the taking. So, in a rush to get holiday shopping over with, you ask for the Sony console.
Now, will all Sony sales end up this way? Not a chance. In fact, you can probably expect a significant growth in sales from the price drop alone. But it certainly won't hurt that the Wii will be sold out again and the PS3 will not, will it?
Sony made the right move because, well, it had to at this point. Expect to see Sony surging in the numbers.
Overall Sony Playstation 3 outlook: moderate to strong
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I cant wait to see what games they make to differentiate themselves from each other. I REALLY hope that eventually (in a few generations) EA doesn't get their wish for a single "open gaming platform". The console makers must "differentiate or die."
Open Gaming Platform
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7052420.stm
Differentiate or Die: Survival in Our Era of Killer Competition
http://www.amazon.com/Differentiate-Die-Survival-Killer-Competition/dp/0471028924
No one can deny that Sony is behind the 8 ball this time around, and while many people blame it on price, software, or Blu-ray, the real underlying reason may simply be that Microsoft changed the game on them. Sony was enjoying the success of the PS2 and was in no hurry to get the PS3 out the door. Plus, I think it's been evident from the beginning that Sony wants to expand the lifecycle of consoles. Afterall, each new console initially means heavy losses on hardware until manufacturing costs can be chopped down to consumer friendly levels. And they routinely speak of the 10 year lifecycle they expect of the PS3. Looking back the PS1 to PS2 was a 5 year timeframe. PS2 to PS3 was a 6 year timeframe, and I have no doubt that if Microsoft hadn't made the 360 4 years after the the original Xbox (the shortest turnaround in console history), they would have postponed it another 6 months or more. Sony just wasn't and isn't ready to compete in the key areas of price and software, and not just game software but the PS3 interface itself needs some work, especially music management and the internet browser.
This coming from someone who has a PS3. I got one of the first ones but failed to turn a profit on eBay due to the short term of high demand for the PS3, so I kept it. If I hadn't kept it, I'd have an Xbox 360 right now because it is currently the best console on the market. (Wii doesn't count. Great fun, but it'll die unless people find new types of games that actually benefit from the unique control set because most don't.) Instead, I have a great Blu-ray player that looks pretty and is fun to play the occasional demo on.
That being said, I think things will be far different in '09. Why? Because Microsoft built a console for '07 and Sony built a console for 2010. As the PS3 comes into its own from a development perspective, the 360 will have been wrung dry and be on the verge of replacement (Think about it. Chances are they won't repeat the 4 year lifecycle, so let's say they go 5. That means the 360 is only 6 months removed from it's half-life. And assuming at least 6 years for the PS3 lifecycle, the PS3 is 6 months removed from being halfway to its half-life. Can't we give the machine time to progress?). Games will most likely be too big for DVDs. Developers will have found the limits of the 360 architecture. The 12th sku will be released to include something they didn't think was necessary. Meanwhile, my PS3 from 2006 will still be purring quietly, playing all the new games. Developers will find they can do more for similar cost on the PS3, while reaching a similar install base. Xbox 720 or something will be announced for next holiday season, and while it is more powerful than the PS3, it contains essentially the same features at substantial price premium. The PS3 will continue to sell as the PS2 does today.
I'm not saying Sony is perfect. They certainly screwed the PS3's early lifespan through misplaced priorities. (And may have put themselves in a deep hole by lacking an install base for developers to profit from.) They failed to get developers ready for their machine and are experiencing non-stop delays as a result. They missed their audience with so many things, and they continue to do that, which is scary. But the one thing you can't deny Sony is that they know how to create a next-gen console. They did that this time. Now they have to wait for the world to catch up.
PS: I think your article accurately predicts the holiday season for each console, but you may be off on a couple of things. Mass Effect may push the 360 more than you think. And you should at least mention Ratchet & Clank, Uncharted: Drakes Fortune, and Haze as above average PS3 exclusives this holiday season. In fact, the more I read about Haze, the more I think it's got potential to be the killer FPS to challenge Bioshock and Halo 3 for 360.
I thought about it and it makes no sense. If a $399 PS3 now becomes affordable, why wouldn't parents choose the cheaper Xbox 360 Arcade or Xbox 360 Premium priced at $349 bundled with Forza 2 and Marvel: Ultimate Alliance? I don't see how parents would see the PS3 as the next viable option to the Wii. Come on now, I know that even most parents have heard of HALO by now. Instead of just stating it, why not back up what you say. Do you think parents will opt for the PS3 just because its named "Sony Playstation?"
You're knocking the xbox for having few exclusives, but you don't list any notable games for the ps3. So you're telling me that a $279 xbox360 that can play halo 3 is going to lose to a $399 ps3 that plays a catalog of games that is "a bit weak?"
The Wii is not a fad. People are buying the Wii, and playing it, because they enjoy it. It's not a fad, when it is a cultural phenomenon. Also, with games like Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii, and games that Nintendo hasn't even revealed to us, yet, still to come in 2008 and beyond, this "fad" will certainly be a long lasting one!
I really like the wii but it only has 1 game for this holiday season. Also, you say the ps3 is moderate to strong but you don't list any titles and even though it is going to have a price drop its still going to be a lot more expensive than the xbo360 that costs $280. And ... you are not listing any good games for the ps3!!!...
You are just probably a sony fanboy..... ¬¬
Please!! update this article and give us some GOOD reasons of why you think the xbox 360 is "mediocre" and the ps3 is "moderate to strong"... because at this time you aren't making any sense
Also, Halo 3 is still a force to be reckoned with. It might have already sold most of what it's going to sell, but it's still going to sell more. All the 12 year old kids who depend on their mommy and daddy to buy their games for them and who could not get it at launch will be getting Halo 3 for Christmas.
The writer also says "videogames sell consoles, not the other way around." This is true, and is another advantage 360 has over the PS3 and Wii. Looking at their overall library of games, 360 is MUCH better than Wii and PS3 combined.
seriously think, the 360 lineup is mediocre..? What the... I don't normally
comment on gaming stuff, but that article was beyond bizarre.
See a doctor, buddy. You've got a severe case of Head-Up-Ass Syndrome.
I'm not a supporter of one console over another, but the logical choice is the Xbox 360 over the Playstation 3. I don't understand this article at all.
What a joke!
Additionally, if games sell systems, rather than the other way around, how could the 360 have anything but a phenomenal holiday season. By any measure, the 360 has BY FAR the strongest software lineup. A visit to any hardware agnostic review site (or a truly objective one like Metacritic.com) will show that not only does the Xbox 360 have by far the largest library of software, covering every genre, but it also has the highest ratio of highly rated games. If games sell consoles, 360 should, by the author's own definition, sell extremely well.
Frankly, I think that the Wii will lose steam within the next couple years, not because it's a fad, but because the CPU and GPU are so deficient, and this fact will become more and more obvious as the 360 and PS3 grow up, while at the same time their prices will be dropping and coming more in-line with the Wii's. By the time the PS3 is available for $100, the fact that you can have a Wii for half as much will be irrelevant. The extra $50 is negligible. The other reason that the Wii is going to have problems, is that the controller is shoddy. The pointer is fine, but the motion detectors lack the precision needed to be a true replacement of the gamepad. Take a look at Wii Sports Golf's putting game, or Wii Sports Boxing (or any other game that uses motion sensing). Fine detail is simply not detected accurately, which leads to terrible gameplay. Big, sweeping gestures, such as swinging a baseball bat or throwing a bowling ball are okay, but nothing that needs precise control is doable with the motion sensors.
I think the PS3 will pull ahead eventually, not because they deserve to. The 360 is a great box with a great library, etc., but because they have an incredible brand, and because the Japanese hate the 360. Japanese developers will support PS3 over 360 simply because their public doesn't buy 360s. The Japanese make a lot of really great games. Over time, this support is going to hurt the 360 in the same way that EA's decision to boycott the Dreamcast killed it. No system can survive without Japanese support, just like no system can survive without EA. Actually, that's not strictly true. The 360 has already reached a critical mass. It will survive regardless, but I think eventually it will be surpassed by PS3, though Sony will not enjoy anything like the lead it had over it's rivals with the PS1 and PS2. In America, though, with or without Japanese software exclusives right off the bat, it's the Playstation brand that will sell systems. People want to want a Playstation 3. It was simply out of their price range before. But Sony is FINALLY fixing this, and it will work out well for them. There are already hundreds of titles in development because development cycles are typically 18 months or more and developers/publishers assumed that PS3 would be the hands-down winner just like PS1 and PS2 were. That didn't happen right out of the gate, but developers can't just go back in time and transfer resources to a different platform. Lots of games are now coming to the PS3, whether Sony deserves them or not.
So, as you can see, my conclusions do not differ greatly from the author's. The main difference is that my positions are defensible, while his rely on gigantic leaps of logic.
Personally I have only this to say "DO YOUR RESEARCH!". If you had spent 10 minutes on metacritic you would find:
Xbox 360 - price $280-$350-$400:
- The top TWENTY 360 titles are all rated between 86% and 97%, 7 are exclusive, 3 are XBLA average is 89.85%
- Over SEVENTY titles rated above 80%, of which over 25 are exclusive and many are XBLA.
- 275 titles available, not counting backward compat Xbox1 titles.
- Highly anticipated Q4 '07 releases include:
Virtua Fighter 5, Ace Combat 6, Assassins Creed, Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero III, Rock Band, Mass Effect, The Simpsons
-Potential Q4 BREAK-OUT hits include:
Naruto, VP: Party Animals, Jericho, Chronicles of Riddick, Brothers in Arms, Bladestorm
Bonus points for:
- Xbox Live, Matchmaking and Leaderboards. Hands down the best online gaming experience on a console to date.
- Online Marketplace which has a LOT of content including game expansions TV shows and Movies.
- All units now inlcude HDMI and 1080p
- Achievement points - this is truly revolutionary
- HD-DVD is available as an upgrade if you want it, but isn't forced on all buyers.
- Addressing shortcomings - Adding HDMI/1080p, extending warranty to 3 years, releasing the Core Arcade pack
- MS makes a profit on hardware sales (not counting repair chargebacks due to mass RROD)
Negatives:
- no wifi packed in, and the adapter is STILL $100? This price needs to be halved.
- Overpriced accessories (see Wifi) and chip lockout to prevent 3rd party alternatives.
- still selling core sans hard drive, all units should come with storage.
- Online isn't free (it is only $.14 a day folks, reasonable imho for the superior online experience)
Wii - price $250:
- The top 20 games at 72% to 95% with only 3 rating 90+, 12 exclusives, mostly from Nintendo and an average rating 79.24%.
- NOTE: The top TWO games are Gamecube releases (Resident Evil IV and Zelda).
- 93 titles available
- Anticipated titles: Mario Galaxy, Nights, Soul Calbur, everything else is cross platform and will look better on PS3/360
Bonus points for:
- Wii retro arcade, cool in concept, if not practical on the system.
- Gimmicky controller, gets people talking and playing that normally wouldn't
- Fabulous marketing - how else could they sell millions of an technically inferior product.
- Japanese support
- full backward compatibility will all of Nintendo's previous systems
- Nintendo always makes a profit on hardware
Negatives:
- no online to speak of
- gimmicky controller turns out not to work so great for fine control
- technically inferior hardware
PS3 - price $400-$500:
- The top 20 are 82% to 93%, with 7 being exclusive, average score 84.3%
- 29 rated 80% or higher, still only 7 exclusives
- 86 titles available now
- Anticipated titles for Q4:
Assassins Creed, Call of Duty 4, Chronicles of Riddick, Jericho, Guitar Hero III, Rock Band (sounds familiar)
- Potential break out hits:
Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, SOCOM
Bonus points for:
- WiFi in box
- all systems including a hard drive
- Blu-Ray (even if it is crammed down your throat)
- HDMI and 1080p
- Japanese support
- interactivity with the PSP
- Online is free
Negatives:
- high price (thanks Blu-Ray)
- Cheapest system ($400) is NOT backward compatible AT ALL
- it is monster sized, makes the xbox1 look small.
- Online is not fleshed out
- Sony loses BIG money on every console sold
So where are the next gen games Dan? Obviously on the 360. Period. The facts back that 100%